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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 3, Pick 89: RHP Matthew Allan
PostPosted: Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:01 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
tejdog1 wrote:
Here's the thing tho, most of these deals include college education as well. So it's not like it's just a bonus.

And I'm sorry, please give me $1.5m (700k ish after taxes) as a lump sum when I'm 18 (2002) and watch what I do with it.


College education where? And when? And maybe a kid doesn't want to be the 25 year old in the school of continuing education.


I think you're underselling college as a 25 year old. There's a fair number of slightly older students and he can attend college with his full attention and more maturity vs as an 18 year old while focusing on baseball as much or more than studies and likely leaving after his junior year.

Neither path is a perfect college experience and ideal path to graduation and career. As someone who wasn't ready for college after high school, I feel a preference towards getting some life experience and attending college a bit older than right out of HS.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 3, Pick 89: RHP Matthew Allan
PostPosted: Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:10 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Not sure which side you're advocating for but most (if not all) of these kids dream about getting drafted and becoming a professional baseball player... and the chance that the majors will a part of their future. Most know that the majors is not a guarantee but are still fortunate to have that chance at it.

And the bonus money is nothing to stick one's nose up at, which you seem to be doing. Many teachers or similar working people struggle for many years to save the money to buy a house so this is nothing to take for granted. It's a nice head start in life and they can always take a different path if the baseball career doesn't work out by 26 or 27. That's still young enough to do something else.

It seems more the exception that players drafted turn down bonuses to go back to college, but it happens.


This is exactly what I am against. When folks start acting like they know whats best for the kids, how this is a "head start," how they can always do something else later. Pulling on "dreams" in order to enter a kid into a system thats rigged against them during the only time they will have any leverage for a while in this game.

I get that we all want to sign as many of these kids as possible. It just starts getting weird - every single year - when we start getting those comments that villain-ize the kids who don't sign. We can go check the tapes in some of those threads.

Telling someone not to follow their dreams bc it's not practical and might not work out sounds like advice from someone who "knows what's best for the kids."


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 3, Pick 89: RHP Matthew Allan
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:32 am 
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The thinking is if you become a professional baseball player you're probably going to fail, so you better set yourself up for life.

But if I'm 19 years old, living in a 2 bedroom apartment with 7 other guys, eating bad food, playing video games all day and baseball all night sounds like the greatest adventure imaginable.

Reality shouldn't slap you in the face until you're 25 years old with a wife and a kid and are looking at your 3rd straight year in the Eastern League.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 3, Pick 89: RHP Matthew Allan
PostPosted: Sat Jun 08, 2019 9:54 am 
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I don’t think there is an easy RIGHT answer to going pro or going to college - Its very dependent on the individual's personal situation and the options in front of him


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 3, Pick 89: RHP Matthew Allan
PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:29 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
College is 3 more years of potentially blowing out your arm and never getting a big pay day. He should take a solid signing bonus now to join an organization that has produced plenty of pitchers over the last 5-7 years with a shot to graduate to one of the best markets in the country to land revenue sources outside of the game.


Not to say this is you personally, but easily my least favorite part of the MLB draft is when fans go all rabid dog "SIGN!!!!!!!" at kids and go weirdly pro-team/pro-owners in compelling the kids to just "take the money."

Lets be realistic about what this money is. It sounds like a big number, but it could be the last substantial - or even moderate - or even living-wage-ish - payday you get in this game. So now take that bonus, take out the taxes, spread it over 6 or 7 years, think about what your prospects are at 25 without a college degree if things don't work out - its not exactly the lifechanging amount everyone assumes it is.

There's a lot that goes into these decisions. Lets not get all weird and grimy about herding kids. Hopefully they sign; if not, best of luck to them as sure they know they are leaving a big check on the table for whatever reasons they do.


My thoughts were 100% for the player. Getting first round draft pick money as a pitcher is a pretty nice head start in life, and three years of pitching in college could destroy any change of ever getting that money with one sore elbow.

If he goes to college for three years, pitches great, and then gets an extra million in the draft, then great for him. But there's a chance that he blows his arm and never gets this kind of offer again.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 3, Pick 89: RHP Matthew Allan
PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:54 pm 
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Sources: Mets believe they can sign third rounder RHP Matthew Allan with a bonus in the $2.5-$2.55 range.

They are still confident that a deal will get done.

Per Mike Mayer

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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 3, Pick 89: RHP Matthew Allan
PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:16 pm 
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Mogriffjr wrote:
Sources: Mets believe they can sign third rounder RHP Matthew Allan with a bonus in the $2.5-$2.55 range.

They are still confident that a deal will get done.

Per Mike Mayer

Sources: Mets believe (fill in the blank) will be ready to play when he is eligible to come off the IR.
But they are almost always wrong


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 3, Pick 89: RHP Matthew Allan
PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:41 pm 
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Mogriffjr wrote:
Sources: Mets believe they can sign third rounder RHP Matthew Allan with a bonus in the $2.5-$2.55 range.

They are still confident that a deal will get done.

Per Mike Mayer

That's $2.5M to $2.75M.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 3, Pick 89: RHP Matthew Allan
PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:58 pm 
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Mogriffjr wrote:
Sources: Mets believe they can sign third rounder RHP Matthew Allan with a bonus in the $2.5-$2.55 range.

They are still confident that a deal will get done.

Per Mike Mayer


That math doesn't check out after the Wolf signing.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 3, Pick 89: RHP Matthew Allan
PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:39 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
Mogriffjr wrote:
Sources: Mets believe they can sign third rounder RHP Matthew Allan with a bonus in the $2.5-$2.55 range.

They are still confident that a deal will get done.

Per Mike Mayer


That math doesn't check out after the Wolf signing.

Assuming Mangum signs for not more than $50K, it sounds like they'll have about $2.3M or so for Allan, if I'm doing the math right. Not sure what the overage penalty is.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 3, Pick 89: RHP Matthew Allan
PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:48 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
Mogriffjr wrote:
Sources: Mets believe they can sign third rounder RHP Matthew Allan with a bonus in the $2.5-$2.55 range.

They are still confident that a deal will get done.

Per Mike Mayer


That math doesn't check out after the Wolf signing.

Assuming Mangum signs for not more than $50K, it sounds like they'll have about $2.3M or so for Allan, if I'm doing the math right. Not sure what the overage penalty is.


My math brings it a bit lower than that. Assuming you're saving almost all of Mangum's slot, I see about $2.1 mil there. That's before any spending in the penalty range, though.

If you can go 5% over in total slot value before draft pick penalties then they could go as high as $2.5 assuming the $2.1 base. So I guess it's possible -- I just don't think it's very likely.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 NYM Draft: Round 3, Pick 89: RHP Matthew Allan
PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:55 am 
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You're never going to go broke betting against the Mets knowing what they're doing, but I find it hard to believe the Mets gave Wolf that much money so quickly without knowing that Allan was still a lock.


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