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 Post subject: Goldstein's draft speculation (Mets)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 1:00 pm 
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I'm not a BP subscriber so this is why I'm posting Toby Hyde's summary of what KG had to say....

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At Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein has started speculating about the top of the 2010 draft in which the Mets will hold the #7 pick. Goldstein writes,

Multiple sources indicated that the Mets will “go off the board,” or “pull a surprise” at No. 7. …three sources indicated a connection between the Mets and Cal State Fullerton shortstop Christian Colon. …maybe nobody has brought more wide-ranging opinions than Colon. …The Good: “He’s shocked us with his power and he’s proven some stuff with wood bats for us already as well. He’s not a runner, but he has great footwork, great hands, and a good arm. He’s not sexy with upside, but for me, if you are talking about a guy like Manny Machado, you’re hope is that in three years he’s as good as Colon is now.”

The Bad: “Based on what I expected, he’s the most overrated and overhyped guy I’ve seen all spring. He’s a 30 [on the 20-80 scouting scale] runner and he’s kind of fat. It’s a gritty utility guy for me, as I just saw no tools there. How many 30 runners are playing shortstop in the big leagues? At best, he’s maybe Ronnie Belliard.”


Mets Minor League Blog post: http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2010 ... a-slow-ss/

The actual BP article (subscribers only): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=10704


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 Post subject: Re: Goldstein's draft speculation (Mets)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 1:47 pm 
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Ehh I don't like the sound of that. High ceiling high school arm please.


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 Post subject: Re: Goldstein's draft speculation (Mets)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 2:07 pm 
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Couple of names worry me.

This one doesn't.

Colon seems to be falling rather than rising.


8)

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 Post subject: Re: Goldstein's draft speculation (Mets)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 2:09 pm 
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zaknim wrote:
Ehh I don't like the sound of that. High ceiling high school arm please.


Yep, or Austin Wilson.

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Yeah, and if you're using the "He's 19" logic, then I guess the best report a scout could give us is:


"I have no idea. He's a teenager. He may go through 5 arm surgeries between now and his 30th birthday. He may add a pitch. He may lose a pitch. He may put on 30 lbs and add velocity. He may put on 50 lbs and eat his way out of the league. I literally have no idea what he is going to be."

But thats not what these guys are paid to do, nor what we are looking for them to do, right?


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 Post subject: Re: Goldstein's draft speculation (Mets)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 2:44 pm 
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Colon or Machado, guys who can play SS well who are also graded well offensively, both sound more than fine to me.

You have a lot of fallbacks if you're not wholly dependent on one part of your game to carry you to the big leagues.

I also like the fact that Colon, I believe, has something like a 25/10 BB/K in 150 or so Abs this year. He's also stolen 8 bases in 11 tries this year (in 38 games) and stole 15 last year. Don't think he's quite on the Tortuga level.


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 Post subject: Re: Goldstein's draft speculation (Mets)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 2:46 pm 
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I also like guys who don't just come out of nowhere...Colon has been highly regarded since HS. This wouldn't bother me at all, and speaks to Acer's idea that they may indeed grab a bat, breaking from recent tradition.


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 Post subject: Re: Goldstein's draft speculation (Mets)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 3:21 pm 
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I wouldn't be thrilled with Colon, basically a guy who has neither plus speed or plus power, with the 7th pick. But, the more he proves he's the best overall hitter right now in this college class, the more I think he would be a great fit for the Mets. Guy supposedly has off the charts makeup, was chosen captain of the team USA collegiate team, apparently the first time they've done that.

In short he'll probably still be an above average MLB 2B, might be ready even as soon as next season, has the makeup to handle NY, and fills one of the greatest weaknesses on the current roster: an infield of Wright, Reyes, Colon, and Davis would be pretty nice, even if he might be the worst player of those four.


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 Post subject: Re: Goldstein's draft speculation (Mets)
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 3:30 pm 
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What I don't like is the Mets pulling a suprise or going off the board. I won't get upset if we do get a college bat if he's rated around where he should be drafted. I just want us to pull a crazy out of no where pick.


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 Post subject: Re: Goldstein's draft speculation (Mets)
PostPosted: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:41 am 
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Colon is a good player, I don't have a problem with him.

Do I have preferences over him? Absolutely. But I wouldn't be at all upset with that.

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 Post subject: Re: Goldstein's draft speculation (Mets)
PostPosted: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:50 pm 
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Maybe by Mets pulling a surprise, they mean the Mets will bypass signability and go with the best player available.


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 Post subject: Re: Goldstein's draft speculation (Mets)
PostPosted: Sat May 01, 2010 4:04 am 
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The one big surprise I think I would like is Austin Wilson. A lot of people have him going down around 20, but the talent is there to justify a top 10, and it seems he might go to Stanford if he doesn't get the good bonus. Maybe Castellanos would be a surprise that high. Or even someone like Cowart. In the college ranks, I think Jesse Hahn or Matt Harvey would be a surprise that some might consider possibly worth it. I suppose Paxton would be a big surprise, though he might actually have the talent to be top 10 if he were pitching anywhere.

I don't think Machado or Whitson would be a surprise at this point, though I don't think Colon would be either, as he was the consensus top college bat for most of the last year. Can't say Covey or Cole would be too much a surprise either, as some might not like them that high, but many others do.

Kyle Parker is a guy who might be a surprise in the first round somewhere, or even as a supplemental pick, but I can't quite see top 10. He's one of the better athletes in the class, a star quarterback for Clemson, whose baseball skills have maybe lagged a bit due to his being a two sport athlete. But his bat has really come on in the last year.


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