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All in and some good vibes
http://nyfuturestars.com/community/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=46133
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Author:  Metsfan980 [ Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: All in and some good vibes

Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.

Author:  jdawginsc [ Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: All in and some good vibes

Metsfan980 wrote:
Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.

Author:  tejdog1 [ Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: All in and some good vibes

Why not
#LFGM

Author:  MikeH [ Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: All in and some good vibes

Love this. Good vibes club 2.0. I’m in. All in.

Author:  R Nitelight [ Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: All in and some good vibes

jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.



Superior managing.


8)

Author:  Daaaarryyl [ Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: All in and some good vibes

jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.


I think they factor in remaining schedule: home/road and winning % of opponents

Author:  bygranddesign [ Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: All in and some good vibes

I’m all in for this year

And I’m all in for 2020

LGM!!

Author:  northway [ Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: All in and some good vibes

Daaaarryyl wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.


I think they factor in remaining schedule: home/road and winning % of opponents


Phillies also have a negative run differential. As of this week the Mets are in positive territory.

Author:  LTKfRGM [ Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: All in and some good vibes

bygranddesign wrote:
I’m all in for this year

And I’m all in for 2020

LGM!!


I just want to point out that I've been saying it's too soon to give up on 2020 all year.

Author:  bygranddesign [ Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: All in and some good vibes

LTKfRGM wrote:
bygranddesign wrote:
I’m all in for this year

And I’m all in for 2020

LGM!!


I just want to point out that I've been saying it's too soon to give up on 2020 all year.


We have 2 of the best starting pitchers in baseball

We have one of the best young power hitters in baseball

We have one of the best pure hitters in all of baseball

Why tear that down?

Are we going to come up with a better nucleus than that?

Just rework the bullpen

Improve the bench

Maybe go out and get a true CF

And Obviously you’ll have to replace Wheeler if he doesn’t accept the QO

But .. got to go for it in 2020 .. Brodie needs to convince the Wilpons that increasing the payroll is going to be worth it

Author:  Metsfan980 [ Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: All in and some good vibes

jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.


They simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times and return the proportion of times that each team makes the postseason as their probability to make the playoffs.

Between remaining schedule, run differential trends, and just good ole' fashioned model biases, their simulation is putting the Mets in the post season almost 1,000 more times than the Phillies during their most recent simulations.

Author:  egelband2 [ Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: All in and some good vibes

R Nitelight wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.



Superior managing.


8)


Phillies may be one of the very few teams the Mets have that jump on

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