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Discuss the Mets and their minor leaguers.
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Re: All in and some good vibes

Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:03 am

Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.

Re: All in and some good vibes

Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:10 pm

Metsfan980 wrote:Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.

Re: All in and some good vibes

Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:17 pm

Why not
#LFGM

Re: All in and some good vibes

Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:35 pm

Love this. Good vibes club 2.0. I’m in. All in.

Re: All in and some good vibes

Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:37 pm

jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.



Superior managing.


8)

Re: All in and some good vibes

Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:46 pm

jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.


I think they factor in remaining schedule: home/road and winning % of opponents

Re: All in and some good vibes

Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:51 pm

I’m all in for this year

And I’m all in for 2020

LGM!!

Re: All in and some good vibes

Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:02 pm

Daaaarryyl wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.


I think they factor in remaining schedule: home/road and winning % of opponents


Phillies also have a negative run differential. As of this week the Mets are in positive territory.

Re: All in and some good vibes

Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:06 pm

bygranddesign wrote:I’m all in for this year

And I’m all in for 2020

LGM!!


I just want to point out that I've been saying it's too soon to give up on 2020 all year.

Re: All in and some good vibes

Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:26 pm

LTKfRGM wrote:
bygranddesign wrote:I’m all in for this year

And I’m all in for 2020

LGM!!


I just want to point out that I've been saying it's too soon to give up on 2020 all year.


We have 2 of the best starting pitchers in baseball

We have one of the best young power hitters in baseball

We have one of the best pure hitters in all of baseball

Why tear that down?

Are we going to come up with a better nucleus than that?

Just rework the bullpen

Improve the bench

Maybe go out and get a true CF

And Obviously you’ll have to replace Wheeler if he doesn’t accept the QO

But .. got to go for it in 2020 .. Brodie needs to convince the Wilpons that increasing the payroll is going to be worth it

Re: All in and some good vibes

Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:12 am

jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.


They simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times and return the proportion of times that each team makes the postseason as their probability to make the playoffs.

Between remaining schedule, run differential trends, and just good ole' fashioned model biases, their simulation is putting the Mets in the post season almost 1,000 more times than the Phillies during their most recent simulations.

Re: All in and some good vibes

Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:12 am

R Nitelight wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.



Superior managing.


8)


Phillies may be one of the very few teams the Mets have that jump on
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