Joined: Sun Nov 26, 2006 3:56 pm Posts: 30015 Location: Danbury, CT
Why not #LFGM
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matlack72 wrote:
I find this talk about Kelenic comical. He's a 19 year old kid who hit .253 at Kingsport and struck out once a game and people are talking like he's the second coming. Get real people. When you have a chance to get the best reliever in the game who's only 24 and give up Kelenic in the deal, you MAKE that deal. Stop with the nonsense.
The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.
The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.
I don't quite get that.
I think they factor in remaining schedule: home/road and winning % of opponents
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Yeah, and if you're using the "He's 19" logic, then I guess the best report a scout could give us is:
"I have no idea. He's a teenager. He may go through 5 arm surgeries between now and his 30th birthday. He may add a pitch. He may lose a pitch. He may put on 30 lbs and add velocity. He may put on 50 lbs and eat his way out of the league. I literally have no idea what he is going to be."
But thats not what these guys are paid to do, nor what we are looking for them to do, right?
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 8:01 am Posts: 25134 Location: Harlem
Daaaarryyl wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
Fangraphs' projections update.
The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.
The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.
I don't quite get that.
I think they factor in remaining schedule: home/road and winning % of opponents
Phillies also have a negative run differential. As of this week the Mets are in positive territory.
_________________ Baseball has a way of ripping your ❤️ out, stabbing it, putting it back in your chest, then healing itself just in time for Spring Training. - Thor
The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.
The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.
I don't quite get that.
They simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times and return the proportion of times that each team makes the postseason as their probability to make the playoffs.
Between remaining schedule, run differential trends, and just good ole' fashioned model biases, their simulation is putting the Mets in the post season almost 1,000 more times than the Phillies during their most recent simulations.
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