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 Post subject: Re: All in and some good vibes
PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:03 am 
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Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


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 Post subject: Re: All in and some good vibes
PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:10 pm 
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Metsfan980 wrote:
Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.

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 Post subject: Re: All in and some good vibes
PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:17 pm 
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Why not
#LFGM

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Terry Collins cost the Mets a World Series title.

The Wilpons are the worst owners in worldwide professional sports.

matlack72 wrote:
I find this talk about Kelenic comical. He's a 19 year old kid who hit .253 at Kingsport
and struck out once a game and people are talking like he's the second coming. Get real people. When you have a chance to get the best reliever in the game who's only 24 and give up Kelenic in the deal, you MAKE that deal. Stop with the nonsense.


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 Post subject: Re: All in and some good vibes
PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:35 pm 
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Love this. Good vibes club 2.0. I’m in. All in.

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 Post subject: Re: All in and some good vibes
PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:37 pm 
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jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.



Superior managing.


8)

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Whatever.

8)


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 Post subject: Re: All in and some good vibes
PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:46 pm 
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jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.


I think they factor in remaining schedule: home/road and winning % of opponents

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Yeah, and if you're using the "He's 19" logic, then I guess the best report a scout could give us is:


"I have no idea. He's a teenager. He may go through 5 arm surgeries between now and his 30th birthday. He may add a pitch. He may lose a pitch. He may put on 30 lbs and add velocity. He may put on 50 lbs and eat his way out of the league. I literally have no idea what he is going to be."

But thats not what these guys are paid to do, nor what we are looking for them to do, right?


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 Post subject: Re: All in and some good vibes
PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:51 pm 
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I’m all in for this year

And I’m all in for 2020

LGM!!


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 Post subject: Re: All in and some good vibes
PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:02 pm 
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Daaaarryyl wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.


I think they factor in remaining schedule: home/road and winning % of opponents


Phillies also have a negative run differential. As of this week the Mets are in positive territory.

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 Post subject: Re: All in and some good vibes
PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:06 pm 
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bygranddesign wrote:
I’m all in for this year

And I’m all in for 2020

LGM!!


I just want to point out that I've been saying it's too soon to give up on 2020 all year.

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Nothing is Written. (few know this, but T.E. Lawrence was talking about the 2020 Mets when he said that).


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 Post subject: Re: All in and some good vibes
PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:26 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
bygranddesign wrote:
I’m all in for this year

And I’m all in for 2020

LGM!!


I just want to point out that I've been saying it's too soon to give up on 2020 all year.


We have 2 of the best starting pitchers in baseball

We have one of the best young power hitters in baseball

We have one of the best pure hitters in all of baseball

Why tear that down?

Are we going to come up with a better nucleus than that?

Just rework the bullpen

Improve the bench

Maybe go out and get a true CF

And Obviously you’ll have to replace Wheeler if he doesn’t accept the QO

But .. got to go for it in 2020 .. Brodie needs to convince the Wilpons that increasing the payroll is going to be worth it


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 Post subject: Re: All in and some good vibes
PostPosted: Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:12 am 
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jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.


They simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times and return the proportion of times that each team makes the postseason as their probability to make the playoffs.

Between remaining schedule, run differential trends, and just good ole' fashioned model biases, their simulation is putting the Mets in the post season almost 1,000 more times than the Phillies during their most recent simulations.


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 Post subject: Re: All in and some good vibes
PostPosted: Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:12 am 
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Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2012 4:10 pm
Posts: 598
R Nitelight wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
Fangraphs' projections update.

The Mets have a 32.7% chance to make the post season.

The Phillies have a 24.8% chance to make the post season.


I don't quite get that.



Superior managing.


8)


Phillies may be one of the very few teams the Mets have that jump on


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